Clımate Change Projectıons For Turkey And Impact Of Mıneral Dust Aerosols

Thesis Type: Doctorate

Institution Of The Thesis: Gazi Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Turkey

Approval Date: 2018


Supervisor: BERİL AKIN


Turkey, located in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change. Besides, the Eastern Mediterranean basin is under the influence of mineral dusts originating from Africa and the Middle East due to its geographical location. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change accepts mineral dusts as a major component of atmospheric aerosols which is also one of the major climate variables. For this reason, it is important to examine mineral dust aerosols in climate studies. In this study, high resolution temperature, precipitation and dust aerosol data were projected and evaluated for 1972-2099 period by using the GFDL-ESM2M global climate model and the CAM aerosol model outputs for Eastern Mediterranean basin, taking into account the RCP 4.5 concentration scenario with RegCM regional climate model. Then, the temperature and precipitation maps were compared to non-dusty conditions. As a result, an increase between 1.5 to 2°C temperature according to the temperature projection Turkey is found, while about 10% reduction in precipitation is found in the following years. According to the dust aerosol optical depth projections, which show significant increases in the study area especially in the autumn months, it is expected to expand towards summer months after 2040. An increase trend is anticipated in Hakkari, Kilis and Mardin, which are influenced by the Middle Eastern dust transport, while a small increase is anticipated in Antalya which is frequently affected by African dust transportation in the following years according to dust concentration data. Besides, ΔT increased (positive) in temperature projections obtained in dusty condition compared to the dustless condition. ΔT was decreased and even in some areas it was found to be minus in the autumn season after 2070. This means that the temperature decreases in the region where the dust is intense.