Analysıs Of The Global Clımate Change Scale Wıth Box-Jenkıns Method: Ankara/Turkey


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Gazi Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Turkey

Approval Date: 2019

Student: SİMGE AKŞİT

Supervisor: BERİL AKIN

Abstract:

Global climate change is a situation caused by natural causes and human activities. There is a balance between the light coming from the Sun and beam of light reverberated from Earth's surface to the atmosphere. The main reason for global climate change is that current balance is not protected due to external factors. Aim of this research is determine the ratio of global climate change on Ankara. In this study, the stationary temporal climate series of temperature, precipitation and vaporization series for Ankara city were analyzed using by Box-Jenkins method. The analysis completed using temperature, precipitation and vaporization data for Ankara, which is taken from Meteorology General Directorate, until 2017. There is a relation between temperature, precipitation, vaporization data and global climate change trends. A decrease of 0.6 0C in temperature, an increase of 21.54 mm in vaporization and a decrease of 19.91 mm in precipitation have been predicted. According to these analyses, the Ankara city will be affected by the global warming and there will be drought climate for the future.