A statistical riverine litter propagation model


BALAS C. E., Williams A., Simmons S., Ergin A.

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN, cilt.42, sa.11, ss.1169-1176, 2001 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 42 Sayı: 11
  • Basım Tarihi: 2001
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/s0025-326x(01)00133-3
  • Dergi Adı: MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1169-1176
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: litter, plastics, simulation model, stranding probability, River Taff, Wales, ALGORITHM, DYNAMICS
  • Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

A statistical riverine litter propagation (RLP) model based on importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation was developed in order to predict the frequency distribution of certain litter types in river reaches. The model was preliminarily calibrated for plastic sheeting by a pilot study conducted on the River Taff, Wales (UK). Litter movement was predominantly controlled by reach characteristics, such as vegetation overhang and watercourse obstructions. These affects were modeled in the simulations, by utilizing geometric distributions of river reaches in the time domain. The proposed model satisfactorily simulated the dosing experiments performed at the River Taff. It was concluded from the preliminary calibrations that, the RLP model can be efficiently utilized to portray litter propagation at any arbitrarily selected river site, provided that the stream flows and reach characteristics are calibrated by representative probability distributions of similar sections. Therefore, the RLP model can be considered as a new statistical technique that can predict litter propagation in river sections. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.