Quantitative risk analysis for transportation of dangerous goods in Turkiye

ÇETİNYOKUŞ S., Durmus A., ÇETİNYOKUŞ T.

Research in Transportation Business and Management, cilt.65, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 65
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101588
  • Dergi Adı: Research in Transportation Business and Management
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Physical impact Modeling, Quantitative risk analysis (QRA), Statistical analysis, Transportation of dangerous goods by road(TDGR)
  • Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study presents a comprehensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) framework for assessing road transport accidents involving dangerous goods in Turkiye. The proposed methodology integrates national accident statistics, scenario-based event tree modeling, and ALOHA software/ correlations for consequence and impact assessment. Three representative routes in İzmir were selected as pilot areas to evaluate accident frequencies, physical impact zones, and associated individual and societal risks. Results indicate that LNG and LPG transport pose the highest risk levels, with scenario frequencies exceeding the regulatory threshold (1 × 10−4/year). Population exposure analysis revealed that social risk varies significantly with local demographic density. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that both the frequency of the initiating event and population distribution are critical determinants of total risk. The study presents a data-driven, nationally adapted QRA model aligned with Turkish transport infrastructure and regulations, providing a robust decision-support tool for improving road safety and emergency preparedness in dangerous goods logistics.