Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for the Central Anatolia region, Turkey

Ozmen B.

ARABIAN JOURNAL OF GEOSCIENCES, vol.8, no.8, pp.6341-6351, 2015 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 8 Issue: 8
  • Publication Date: 2015
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s12517-014-1591-8
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.6341-6351
  • Keywords: Central Anatolian, Turkey, Gumbel method, Seismicity, Earthquake hazard parameters, PROBABILITIES, SEISMICITY, EVOLUTION
  • Gazi University Affiliated: Yes


The aim of this study is to evaluate the Central Anatolia region of Turkey with regard to seismicity and earthquake hazard using available data on Mw a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 4.0 earthquakes that occurred between 1900 and 2011 and the Gumbel Extreme Values method. Additionally, the study also aimed to determine the parameters associated with earthquake hazards. The seismicity analysis for the Central Anatolia region was performed by evaluating past earthquakes in six source regions located within the area falling within 38-41A degrees N latitude and 30-35A degrees E longitude. For each region, the researcher determined the occurrence probability and the return period for earthquakes strong enough to cause material damage and the possible maximum magnitudes for earthquakes that might occur in the future within a certain time period. Based on the study results, the researcher determined that the North Anatolian fault zone (zone 1) in Central Anatolia is the region characterized by the highest probability (89 %) than an Mw a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 7.0 magnitude earthquake will occur within the next 100 years and that the return period in this zone for such an earthquake is 50 years.