A cellular automata-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of the city center as a complex system: The case of Kastamonu, Türkiye

Isinkaralar O., VAROL ÖZDEN Ç.

Cities, vol.132, 2023 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 132
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.104073
  • Journal Name: Cities
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, Avery, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Environment Index, Index Islamicus, PAIS International, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts
  • Keywords: Complexity theory, Urban modeling, Land use prediction, GIS, Cellular automata, Markov chain
  • Gazi University Affiliated: Yes


© 2022 Elsevier LtdCities are located at the intersection of global interactions and analytical modeling of space is an essential progression to understand the organizational structure of today's cities, which consist of complex networks and self-organizing processes that affect their nonlinear development. The cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) modeling is a preferred method in predictive modeling and land use change studies of complex systems. It is widely used in modeling land use/land cover change. In this paper, the land use change between 1985-2021 in the Kastamonu city center has been examined within the framework of complexity theory. It is aimed to develop a quantitative model for the comparative measurement of temporal complexity variation. In this context, scenarios were designed with two basic approaches; self-organizing and planned city center development and simulations were made for the years 2031 and 2057. The agreement of the model was tested with Kappa statistical values, which resulted to be >0.9438.