Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey

AKAY D., Atak M.

ENERGY, cilt.32, sa.9, ss.1670-1675, 2007 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 32 Sayı: 9
  • Basım Tarihi: 2007
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.energy.2006.11.014
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1670-1675
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: electricity demand, forecasting, grey prediction, ENERGY DEMAND, CONSUMPTION, SYSTEMS, MODEL, INDUSTRY
  • Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity, has been increasing in the last two decades in Turkey. In addition, owing to the uncertain economic structure of the country, electricity consumption has a chaotic and nonlinear trend. Hence, electricity configuration planning and estimation has been the most critical issue of active concern for Turkey. The Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) has officially carried out energy planning studies using the Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED). In this paper, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict the Turkey's total and industrial electricity consumption. GPRM approach is used because of high prediction accuracy, applicability in the case of limited data situations and requirement of little computational effort. Results show that proposed approach estimates more accurate results than the results of MAED, and have explicit advantages over extant studies. Future projections have also been done for total and industrial sector, respectively. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.