Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach

Yurdakul F., Cevher E.

4th World Conference on Business, Economics and Management (WCBEM), Ephesus, Türkiye, 30 Nisan - 02 Mayıs 2015, cilt.26, ss.92-100 identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 26
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00884-9
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Ephesus
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.92-100


This study aims to reveal the causality relations between the macro aggregates that affect current deficit using conditional and partial Granger causality test. Current deficit/GDP, growth rate, real effective exchange rate, direct foreign capital investment, openness, and energy import were selected as variables for this purpose. 2003.1-2014.2 quarterly data for Turkey's economy were used for analysis. The results of the conditional and partial Granger causality test demonstrate that real effective exchange rate is the variable with greatest impact on current deficit/GDP. Exchange rate is followed by the growth rate, energy import, and openness variables. And direct foreign capital investment is the variable with the least impact. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.