Comparative of foF2 Measurements with IRI-2016 Model Predictions for Different Latitudes during Low and High Solar Activity

Timocin E., Temucin H.

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY, vol.61, no.3, pp.438-448, 2021 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 61 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1134/s0016793221030166
  • Page Numbers: pp.438-448


In this paper, we have analyzed how the change in the solar activity is able to affect the IRI-2016 outcomes for different latitudes. We have compared the IRI-2016 model predictions with F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) data derived from the low (Manila), middle (Rome and Kiev) and high (Sodankyla) latitude ionosonde stations during high (1980) and low (1986) solar activity periods. In order to test the performance of IRI-2016, we have calculated the root mean square errors (RMSE) during both low and high solar activity periods. The results show that the deviation between the IRI-2016 predictions and the foF2 measurements are the largest for high solar activity period and this deviation varies depending on the seasons, latitudes, and local time. The IRI-2016 model predictions during low solar activity period usually provide better agreement with the observations at all latitudes. The IRI-2016 performance during high solar activity period changes considerably depending on the seasons and local time at low and high latitudes. During high solar activity period, the discrepancy in IRI-2016 predictions at low and high latitudes is found to be larger and more significant than that at mid-latitude region, particularly for winter and equinox seasons. The results show that the last version of the IRI model is not sufficient to properly represent the real conditions of high solar activity and the IRI-2016 model still needs to significant improvements particularly in the low and high latitude regions taking the impacts of solar maximum year into account.