Towards sustainable coastal management: a hybrid model for vulnerability and risk assessment

Durap A., BALAS C. E.

Journal of Coastal Conservation, cilt.28, sa.4, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 28 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s11852-024-01065-y
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Coastal Conservation
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ANFIS, Bayesian Networks, Coastal vulnerability, Storm and Beach classifications, Vulnerability trends
  • Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper presents the development of a Hybrid Model (HM) integrated with a Bayesian Network (BN) for comprehensive coastal vulnerability and risk assessment, with a focus on Konyaaltı Beach, Antalya, Turkey. The HM incorporates critical environmental parameters such as wind, waves, currents, and sediment transport to simulate conditions at vulnerable coastal areas and perform risk assessments for storm effects, flooding, and erosion. The model includes submodules for predicting coastal storms, quantifying sediment transport rates, assessing tsunami inundation severity, and categorizing storms based on beach typologies. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is utilized for significant wave height predictions, enhancing the model's accuracy. The integration of hydrodynamic modeling, Bayesian networks, and ANFIS offers a robust framework for assessing coastal vulnerability and informing sustainable management practices. The study's results highlight the necessity for integrated risk management strategies, including adaptive infrastructure design, zoning and land use regulations, ecosystem-based management, and continuous monitoring and model refinement to enhance coastal resilience against dynamic environmental forces. This research provides valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of hazards on urban developments, contributing to the advancement of sustainable coastal management.