Factors That Trigger Financial Crises: The Case of Turkey


Yurdakul F.

2nd World Conference on Business, Economics and Management (BEM), Antalya, Turkey, 25 - 28 April 2013, vol.109, pp.896-901 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 109
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.561
  • City: Antalya
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.896-901

Abstract

This study aims to identify the macroeconomic factors that may have triggered the financial crises in Turkey between January 1998 and July 2012. A macroeconomic model was established for this purpose. The model's dependent variable is a dummy variable representing the financial crises of November 2000 and February 2001, which occurred in Turkey within the study period, while foreign exchange rate, money supply, growth rate, interest rate, the ISE index, and inflation rate were taken as the independent variables. Model parameters were estimated using the logit model. The logit model has been successful in identifying the explanatory variables for crises in periods involving real-life crisis experiences and in calculating the probability of crises to happen. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.