Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
16th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management (ICMSEM), Ankara, Türkiye, 3 - 06 Ağustos 2022, cilt.145, ss.497-505, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
China's coalbed methane (CBM) development industry has faced the dilemma of high investment risk and low return on investment ever since China began developing CBM, a relatively clean unconventional natural gas, in the 1980s. In order to reduce the uncertainty of investment, this paper presents a quantitative analysis method of CBM investment risk based on net present value (NPV) calculation and Monte-Carlo analysis. First, the evaluation considers the uncertainty of gas reservoir resources and the market price fluctuation by establishing a probability model. Then, through the steps of Monte-Carlo simulation, the probability density functions of NPV distribution under three scenarios-optimistic, average, and pessimistic predictions are obtained. Through the study of a case area, this paper proves the feasibility of this method. Furthermore, the results show that the risk assessment method proposed in this paper has important guiding value for the CBM investment decision.