Brent-Dubai oil spread: Basic drivers

YÜKSEL HALİLOĞLU E., Sahin S., BERUMENT M. H.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY, cilt.72, ss.492-505, 2021 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 72
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.014
  • Dergi Adı: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, Periodicals Index Online, EconLit
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.492-505
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Brent-Dubai oil spread, Growth of China, Kalman filter, Oil demand, Trade index, FUTURES PRICES, MARKET, REGIONALIZATION, COINTEGRATION, INTEGRATION, CHINA, TIME, SPOT
  • Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aims to assess and quantify the effects of potential economic drivers on the Brent-Dubai price spread using the time-dependent Kalman filtering technique. To understand the pricing mechanism of crude oils, it is necessary to distinguish the driving forces of the world oil market. The Brent-Dubai price spread is selected as a global indicator representing trends in world oil trade and global economic activities. The estimates suggest that the global economic activities represented by the world trade index, world oil demand, world steel production, the number of world airline passengers and regional dynamics proxied by the growth rate of China over the US and the Euro Area have explanatory power on the Brent-Dubai spread. (C) 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.