Risk assessment of Eregli vertical wall breakwater in Turkey

BALAS C. E. , Ergin A.

3rd International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, SINTRA, Portekiz, 01 Haziran 2002, cilt.5, ss.69-77 identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 5
  • Basıldığı Şehir: SINTRA
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Portekiz
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.69-77


In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (pit) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation were interrelated as a new Level III approach in order to analyse the safety level of the vertical wall breakwaters in Turkey. The failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes of the Minikin method for breaking wave forces were forecasted by approximating the failure surface with a second-degree polynomial having an equal curvature at the design point. In the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflected both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied for the risk assessment of vertical wall breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable computers.