Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING, cilt.16, sa.1, ss.123-134, 2002 (SCI-Expanded)
In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (beta(II)) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level III approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure surface with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. In the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable computers.