Turkey's net energy consumption


SÖZEN A. , ARCAKLIOĞLU E., Ozkaymak M.

APPLIED ENERGY, vol.81, no.2, pp.209-221, 2005 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 81 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2005
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2004.07.001
  • Title of Journal : APPLIED ENERGY
  • Page Numbers: pp.209-221
  • Keywords: energy sources, consumption, gross generation, estimation, artificial neural-network, Turkey, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS, SYSTEMS

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of energy consumption in Turkey. In this study, two different models were used in order to train the neural network. In one of them, population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in the input layer of the network (Model 1). Other energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The net energy consumption is in the output layer for two models. Data from 1975 to 2003 are used for the training. Three years (1981, 1994 and 2003) are used only as test data to confirm this method. The statistical coefficients of multiple determinations (R-2-value) for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. Similarly, R-2 values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. According to the results, the net energy consumption using the ANN technique has been predicted with acceptable accuracy. Apart from reducing the whole time required, with the ANN approach, it is possible to find solutions that make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable energy policies. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.