The Importance of Wind Power Forecasts: A Case Study in Turkish Electricity Market

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Karik F., SÖZEN A. , Izgec M. M.

JOURNAL OF POLYTECHNIC-POLITEKNIK DERGISI, vol.20, no.4, pp.851-861, 2017 (Journal Indexed in ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 20 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.2339/politeknik.369038
  • Page Numbers: pp.851-861


Today, providing the highest contribution to national welfare by utilizing natural energy resources in the most efficient and environmentally-conscious manner is one of the biggest targets. In this framework, the utilization of domestic renewable energy sources is crucial importance for Turkey to decrease its energy dependence on foreign supplies. Turkey has determined the target year as 2023, the 100th anniversary of the foundation of Republic, in terms of both energy and economic indicators. The share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is at least % 30 and the planned capacity is 20 GW of installed wind power in 2023. For reaching these targets, it is important to be operated the electricity market in a proper way in terms of the electricity supply-demand balance, low costs and investments. The electricity generation from wind has a variable profile and can cause negative effects in the electricity market. It is important to offer the energy production forecasts of wind power plants to the electricity market for reducing these effects. The forecasts with high accuracy is significant for both plant owner and transmission operator. In this study, the analysis of day ahead market (GOP) which shows the importance of wind power forecast in terms of market revenue is conducted in comparison with renewable energy support mechanism (YEKDEM).