Future projection of the energy dependency of Turkey using artificial neural network


SÖZEN A.

ENERGY POLICY, vol.37, no.11, pp.4827-4833, 2009 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 37 Issue: 11
  • Publication Date: 2009
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.040
  • Title of Journal : ENERGY POLICY
  • Page Numbers: pp.4827-4833
  • Keywords: Energy dependency, Energy indicators, Artificial neural network, ECONOMIC-GROWTH, CONSUMPTION, DEMAND, GDP

Abstract

Energy dependency (ED) implies the extent to which an economy relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs. The ED is calculated as net imports divided by the sum of gross inland energy consumption plus bunkers. This study aims at obtaining numerical equations to estimate of Turkey's energy dependency based on basic energy indicators and sectoral energy consumption by using artificial neural network (ANN) technique. It seeks to contribute to the strategies necessary to preserve the supply-demand balance of Turkey. For this purpose, two different models were used to train the ANN approach. In Model 1, main energy indicators such as total production of primary energy per capita, total gross electricity generation per capita and final energy consumption per capita were used in the input layer of the ANN while sectoral energy consumption per capita was used in Model 2.