A novel method based on Weibull distribution for short-term wind speed prediction


KAPLAN O. , Temiz M.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY, cilt.42, sa.28, ss.17793-17800, 2017 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 42 Konu: 28
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2017.03.006
  • Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.17793-17800

Özet

Wind speed prediction (WSP) is essential in order to predict and analyze efficiency and performance of wind-based electricity generation systems. More accurate WSP may provide better opportunities to design and build more efficient and robust wind energy systems. Precious short-term prediction is difficult to achieve; therefore several methods have been developed so far. We notice that the statistics of the alterations, which occur between sequential values of the predicted wind speed data, may differ significantly from observed wind statistics. In this study, we investigate these alterations and compare them and, accordingly, propose a novel method based on Weibull and Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDF) for short-term WSP. The proposed method stands on an algorithm, which examines comparison of the statistical features of the observed and generated wind speed in order to achieve more accurate estimation. We have examined this method on the wind speed data set observed and recorded in Ankara in 2013 and in 2014. The obtained results show that the new algorithm provides better wind speed prediction with an enhanced wind speed model. (C) 2017 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.