Prediction of the Next Time of an Event with Deep Learning Based Model


Utku A., AKCAYOL M. A.

JOURNAL OF POLYTECHNIC-POLITEKNIK DERGISI, cilt.24, sa.1, ss.1-15, 2021 (ESCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 24 Konu: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF POLYTECHNIC-POLITEKNIK DERGISI
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-15

Özet

Studies have been going on for many years to predict the time before some events happen. Thus, it is aimed to minimize the damage that occurs when the event occurs or to maximize the benefit to be obtained. Studies on the prediction of subsequent events in many different areas, such as the prediction of the subsequent behavior of a customer, the prediction of the subsequent occurrence of natural disasters, the estimate of the number of future demands in a given time interval, are gradually increasing. However, in the literature, there is no successful study for predicting the time and type of event before the occurrence of crimes and emergency calls. Crime analysis is a field of research aimed at securing the threatened areas, reducing the rate of crime and saving law enforcement. High success is achieved with the use of up-to-date technologies in the efforts to resolve the crime shortly after it is committed. Similarly, emergency call analysis reduces response time and optimizes resource usage. In this study, a deep learning based prediction model for crime and emergency call analysis has been developed. With the developed model, the time of the next crime and the time of the next emergency call are predicted. The results obtained with the developed model has been compared with ARIMA which is one of the statistical time series prediction methods. Experimental results have shown that the developed deep learning-based model is more successful than ARIMA in forward-looking event time prediction.