Research Information System
AESOP, İstanbul, Turkey, 7 - 11 July 2025, pp.1-2, (Summary Text)
The
increasing frequency, intensity, and global impact of natural disasters in
recent years has heightened the urgency for effective disaster management and
recovery strategies. Among these disasters, earthquakes are particularly
concerning due to their potentially devastating and unpredictable consequences,
which can result in substantial loss of life and property on a global scale.
Examining approximately 100 major earthquakes worldwide since 1900 reveals that
93% of global deaths from natural disasters are attributable to earthquakes,
underscoring their profound global significance. Türkiye, situated in a
seismically active region, faces elevated earthquake risk. This was tragically
illustrated by two major earthquakes measuring 7.8 and 7.5 on the Richter scale
that struck Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023, within a span of just nine
hours. These unprecedented events claimed more than 50,000 lives and deeply
affected 13.5 million people in 11 cities, including Kahramanmaraş, Hatay,
Adana, Gaziantep, Kilis, Osmaniye, Adıyaman, Şanlıurfa, Malatya, Diyarbakır,
and Elazığ. Consequently, a significant portion of the affected population was
forced to seek refuge in other regions, exacerbating the socio-economic and
infrastructural challenges in the aftermath of the disaster. In this context,
post-disaster population mobility emerges as a critical coping strategy to
address the basic needs of affected communities. Such mobility encompasses
different patterns, including temporary and permanent displacement, relocation,
and return. A comprehensive understanding of the spatial and socio-economic
factors driving these movements is crucial to accelerate recovery processes and
inform resilience-oriented policies. Despite its importance, a significant
knowledge gap exists regarding the relationship between mobility and social,
economic, and environmental indicators, particularly in Türkiye, using
post-earthquake human mobility data and analysis.
This
study aims to analyze the spatial and socio-economic characteristics of
population flows following the February 6, 2023, earthquakes. Its specific
objectives are threefold: (1) to identify the attractive triggers influencing
population movement, (2) to emphasize the importance of incorporating
post-disaster mobility into recovery strategies, and (3) to provide a
comprehensive understanding of the relationships between post-disaster mobility
and social, economic, and environmental indicators. The analysis focuses on the
cities receiving population flows from
the earthquake-affected regions and examines economic (GDP per capita, house
prices/rents, unemployment rates, sectoral employment distribution),
demographic/social (education level, age groups, population density,
urbanization rate), and environmental (earthquake risk level, distance to the
earthquake zone, climate classification, average temperature, annual rainfall,
and sunshine duration) characteristics. A Geographically Weighted Regression
(GWR) model was employed to analyze the spatial distribution and attractive
triggers of population flows.
The
findings reveal significant empirical relationships between population mobility
and specific socio-economic and environmental indicators, providing valuable
insights into post-disaster mobility dynamics. Population flows were found to
be concentrated in neighboring cities where the destruction was less severe,
rather than in western cities. This highlights the need for targeted economic,
social, and infrastructural interventions in these regions to guide recovery
efforts and inform adaptive policies. The study further demonstrates that
unplanned relocation to disaster-prone areas can exacerbate social
inequalities, both within the affected regions and in the destination areas.
Challenges related to employment, labor market integration, and social adaptation
in these new environments contribute to deepening socio-economic disparities.
The study’s contribution to post-disaster process modeling emphasizes the
importance of equitable and inclusive policies to mitigate rather than
exacerbate these inequalities. Moreover, the study underscores the necessity of
formulating policies that consider the long-term impacts of post-disaster
mobility to ensure a more resilient and sustainable recovery process. By
addressing these critical dimensions, the research provides a robust framework
for developing adaptive strategies that promote resilience and inclusivity in
the face of future disasters.