Projected streamflow and suspended sediment dynamics under SSP scenarios in the Botan Creek Basin, Türki̇ye
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, cilt.157, sa.9, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 157 Sayı: 9
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00704-026-06478-3
- Dergi Adı: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, Aerospace Database, Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, Environment Index, Geobase, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Gazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study investigates the impacts of future climate change on streamflow and suspended sediment load (SSL) dynamics in the snow-dominated Botan Basin, a principal tributary of the upper Tigris River in southeastern Türkiye. Precipitation and temperature outputs from 24 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are bias-corrected using linear scaling and distribution mapping techniques to construct multi-model ensembles (MMEs) for the historical (1972–2009) and future (2025–2099) periods under the CMIP6 historical experiment and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The best-performing MMEs drive a multi-site-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to project basin-scale hydrological and sedimentary responses. The results, analyzed over three 25-year future periods, indicate that annual streamflow declines by 6.8–10.0% and 9.6–29.7% in the upper Botan, and by 6.7–12.5% and 9.7–29.7% at the outlet of Botan Creek under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Correspondingly, annual SSL at the creek outlet decreases by 12.4–23.3% and 18.9–49.4% under the respective scenarios. Seasonal redistribution of runoff reveals a transition from snowmelt- to rainfall-dominated hydrology, characterized by enhanced winter discharge and pronounced summer flow deficits. Sediment routing analyses for six planned hydropower reservoirs over a 75-year operational horizon show that potential dead volume allocations diminish by 12.5–19.5% under SSP2-4.5 and by 24.6–33.7% under SSP5-8.5, while a cascade, climate-resilient development reduces cumulative sedimentation by up to 77.1%. These findings emphasize the need for cascade-integrated and dynamically adaptive development strategies to sustain reservoir efficiency and hydropower generation under a changing climate.